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Alarming headlines and media protection have mentioned we’ve had 100 occasions as many influenza circumstances within the first two months of 2023 in contrast with the identical time the earlier 12 months.
The protection instructed we’re in for a bumper flu season, beginning early and your finest safety was to get a flu vaccine, when obtainable.
But that scary sounding 100 determine is deceptive. Here’s what’s behind the figures and what we are able to actually count on from the 2023 flu season.
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Comparing apples with oranges
In the primary two months of 2023, there have been 8,474 laboratory-confirmed circumstances of influenza. In 2022, over the identical interval, there have been 79 circumstances.
So it may appear this 12 months’s figures are certainly greater than 100 occasions increased than final 12 months’s. But we shouldn’t be alarmed. That’s as a result of in early 2022, influenza circumstances had been artificially low.
Strict COVID measures virtually eradicated influenza outbreaks in 2020 and 2021. Shutting worldwide borders, quarantining, social distancing and mask-wearing stopped influenza coming into the nation and spreading.
Many COVID restrictions weren’t relaxed till late February/March 2022. So, in January and February of that 12 months there have been fewer alternatives for us to mingle and unfold the influenza virus. It’s hardly stunning there have been few circumstances then.
In truth, the speed of flu in 2023 is definitely similar to pre-COVID years (that’s earlier than 2020).
As all the time, the reported circumstances symbolize only a fraction of the particular influenza circumstances. That’s as a result of many individuals don’t search medical care when contaminated with influenza or their GP doesn’t all the time take a look at them for it.
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How about an earlier flu season?
Every 12 months, it appears, influenza throws a brand new curve ball making predictions tough.
Flu charges within the northern hemisphere largely peaked in December 2022, two months sooner than common.
But there was some late-season influenza B exercise within the northern hemisphere this 12 months. This is one kind of influenza that causes seasonal flu. So travellers arriving/coming back from the northern hemisphere have been bringing influenza to Australia for a number of months.
Travellers from the northern hemisphere could have been bringing the influenza virus with them.
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So we count on extra circumstances of influenza. Australia could even have an autumn surge. This occurred final 12 months, the place influenza circumstances rose sharply in May, and peaked by June. That’s two months sooner than the five-year common pre-COVID.
Before COVID, influenza circumstances normally started to rise in April/May. This progressed to a full epidemic from June to August, typically extending into September, earlier than waning in October.
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So what can we count on in 2023?
The begin, size and severity of influenza seasons range and are sometimes unpredictable.
Community immunity can be lower than in pre-COVID occasions. That’s due to fewer influenza infections throughout COVID restrictions plus decrease influenza vaccine uptake in recent times.
So the 2023 flu season could also be at the very least reasonably extreme. This stays hypothesis. Flu routinely surprises us.
The severity of the approaching Australian influenza season can be influenced by the varieties of influenza that flow into, when the surge begins and when the season peaks. The effectiveness, uptake and timing of vaccinations and the diploma of remaining herd immunity will all be necessary.
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Plan to get vaccinated
Only about 40% of these eligible had been vaccinated in opposition to influenza in 2022, in keeping with the Australian Immunisation Register database. Rates had been highest in folks aged 65 or older.
However, as we noticed an early influenza season in 2022 (peaking in May/June) this meant many Australians weren’t vaccinated throughout the early phases of the epidemic.
With this data, it’s necessary to be vaccinated in April/May earlier than influenza turns into widespread.
Now is an effective time to begin making ready to get your flu vaccine. Ask your GP or pharmacist when you may ebook your self in.
Vaccination is our greatest defence in opposition to influenza and is really useful from the age of 6 months. Younger infants obtain safety if their mum was vaccinated throughout being pregnant.
The 2023 vaccine has been up to date to guard in opposition to extra not too long ago circulating strains. There are additionally several types of influenza vaccine, some more practical in aged folks, some free below the National Immunisation Program, some not. Other vaccines can be found for folks with egg allergic reactions and for young children. It’s finest to debate the vaccine choices along with your GP or pharmacist.
Robert Booy receives funding from and consults to numerous vaccine firms in Australia. He has been funded by the ARC, NHMRC and trade to do analysis on influenza. He is a long-standing director of the Immunisation Coalition.
Ian Barr owns shares in an influenza vaccine producing firm, and his centre receives funding from industrial teams for ongoing actions.
